What drives crude oil prices: Overview

Understanding what moves crude oil prices is vital for informed decision-making across government, industry, and the public. Crude oil prices are shaped by a dynamic interplay of global forces, and have impacts on energy security, the economy, and consumers.

Here, we present an analysis of the seven key factors that influence crude oil markets, including both physical market dynamics and influences from trading and finance, and examine their connection to crude oil prices.

This resource serves as a guide for those seeking a deeper understanding of crude markets and the major drivers of crude prices.

Key factors influencing crude oil prices:

• Spot prices
• Supply from non-OPEC countries
• Supply from OPEC countries
• The supply demand balance: inventories
• Financial markets
• Demand in non-OECD countries
• Demand in OECD countries

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  In 2025, exports of major petroleum-based transportation fuels, including distillate fuel oil, motor gasoline, and jet fuel, averaged 2.4 million barrels per day (b/d), about the same as the previous year. Distillate fuel oil, commonly sold as diesel, accounts for more than half of these exports, and the entirety of the annual decrease. Exports of gasoline and jet fuel increased slightly in 2025 over 2024. As in previous years, Mexico was the most popular destination by volume for all three fuels, especially gasoline.

  U.S. exports of major transportation fuels in 2025 were about the same as in 2024
  March 9, 2026

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Contact

• Petroleum and liquid fuels markets team
• eiainfopetroleum@eia.gov